Man or mouse?

October 29, 2009 at 5:38 am 7 comments

All vul you pick up:

s86
h1A872
d1
cAK109762

Third in hand RHO opens 6D. What are you doing over that?

Comments suppressed for now.

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Entry filed under: bidding. Tags: .

Two bidding problems. Concluded. Man or mouse? Continues.

7 Comments Add your own

  • 1. Jonathan Mestel  |  October 30, 2009 at 1:11 am

    Swap my hearts and clubs and I would bid. As it is, I pass.

    I’m not happy – at the other table it could well start 5D-6C which
    I’d prefer. But maybe it’ll continue double…

    I suspect RHO has a major on the side 5-1-7-0? But I’m not doing other than passing at the vul.

    Reply
  • 2. Rainer Herrmann  |  October 29, 2009 at 11:45 pm

    The question is what can a rational RHO have for his bid.

    I can come up with two types of hand:

    1.) A genuine preempt:
    Either a ten card or longer diamond suit with any side suit distribution and strength or nine cards in diamonds and a four card side suit with any strength might open 6 diamonds.

    2.) If RHO is hopeful about 6 diamonds
    I would expect him to have at least 2 first round controls outside of diamonds in addition to a long diamond suit headed by ace and king. So I assumed the ace of spades plus a void in clubs or hearts and either a nine card diamond suit or eight diamonds and four spades.

    There is of course some overlap between one and two.

    Given the above hand to the simulator, about one in about 3400 deals met at least one of the above criteria.
    I generated 1000 deals and 6 diamonds made in 46% of all deals. Average number of tricks in a diamond contract was 11.2. Of course some of the weaker hands for criteria 2 for RHO looked more doubtful while some of the stronger ones looked like solid 6D openings. So in practice 6D might make more often.

    Seven clubs would make in 3% of all cases (28 deals only) and average number of tricks in clubs were 9.9.
    Total number of tricks on average in clubs and diamonds per deal was slightly above 21. So you can expect to be 4 down if 6 diamonds makes, showing a small profit but paying dearly when it does not.

    Ace or king of club leads worked better than ace of hearts
    against 6D

    Pass at any vulnerability looks right
    Mice seem to win the day over men.

    Reply
  • 3. Richard  |  October 29, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    Maybe it depends to some extent on who the opponents are. But if they’re being rational, and I think you play against better people than I usually do, which increases the chances, I agree with everybody else. Doing better than one down seems unlikely, but chancing your arm at 7C seems like too much of a flyer (even at matchpoints).

    Reply
  • 4. Chris Mulley  |  October 29, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    Pass – I’m a man, not a lunatic (7C) or a child (double). Surely this is highly unlikely to go more than one off (if, indeed, it goes off at all).

    Reply
  • 5. Ben Thompson  |  October 29, 2009 at 12:06 pm

    It would be entertaining to bid 6H, but I’m just going to lead the HA. When it’s my turn, which I expect to be soon.

    Reply
    • 6. Peter Gill  |  October 30, 2009 at 9:04 pm

      Well done Ben, almost. 6H (or even 7H?) making on a diamond lead would not have entertained the opponents.

      Reply
  • 7. phil markey  |  October 29, 2009 at 9:30 am

    pass – i’m probably a big fan of opening RHO’s hand 5 diamonds

    Reply

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